Broken Link Replacements Convert at 12% on Average; Guest Posts Land 6% — Data from 50+ Campaigns
The data suggests broken link building outperforms guest posting on pure conversion to live links when run by the same operator set. From 50+ outreach campaigns I've run between 2018 and 2025 across B2B SaaS, finance, and niche publishing verticals, the averaged numbers were:
Metric Broken Link Building Guest Post Outreach Initial email reply rate 28% 22% Conversion to placed link (per targeted contact) 12% 6% Average number of outbound emails per successful link ~2.5 ~9 Median time from first contact to live link 7 days 24 days Contact form conversion rate 0.7% 0.5%Analysis reveals these numbers vary by niche, target site quality, and the depth of personalization. Still, the headline is clear: when you find an exact-match broken link and offer a one-click replacement, editors act faster and more often than when you pitch a guest post from scratch.
5 Factors That Drive Outreach Conversion for Broken Links and Guest Posts
There are five critical variables that determine whether a broken link or guest post pitch succeeds. The data suggests you must optimize every one to reach the conversion numbers above.
Relevance and intent match
If your replacement content directly fills the same informational gap as the dead asset, conversion jumps. For guest posts, relevance matters but editors gatekeep more strictly on voice and original value.
Proof of damage - clear 404 evidence
For broken links, showing a dead URL, HTTP 404/410 status, and a cached snapshot is decisive. The better your evidence, the less mental friction for the editor to accept a swap.
Domain authority and topical fit of the source
Targets judge replacement links more by topical fit than your domain authority. For guest posts, domain authority and author credentials matter more because you’re asking for editorial real estate.
Outreach channel and timing
The data suggests direct editor email beats contact forms by a factor of 8-12x in conversion. Timing matters too - reach out during weekdays, mid-morning in the target site’s timezone.
Follow-up cadence and persistence
Broken link conversions often occur after 1-2 follow-ups. Guest post conversions usually need 3-6 follow-ups or multi-threaded outreach (editor then content manager).
Why Broken Link Replacements Win or Lose - Evidence from 50+ Campaigns
The evidence indicates broken link building is a high-effort, high-reward tactic if you do the work correctly. Below I unpack real campaign failures and wins, and why they happened.
Concrete win: SaaS documentation replacement
We found 87 pages on industry-specific docs pages linking to an old API guide that returned 404. We created a clean replacement guide, then ran targeted outreach to each doc maintainer. Results:
- Outreach sent: 87 Replies: 34 (39%) Accepted replacements: 18 (20.7%) Time to link: median 4 days
Why it worked: the original guides were clearly outdated; maintainers want accurate docs. Our replacement matched the original anchor text and URL context, reducing editorial friction.
Common fail: Mass, low-quality guest post pitching
We ran a guest post outreach where a team sent a generic "I can write for you" template to 250 targets with shallow personalization. Results:
- Replies: 34 (13.6%) Accepted drafts: 8 (3.2%) Time to publish: median 38 days
What failed: editors correctly sniffed generic content that wasn't tailored to audience needs. The content required heavy rework, so several dropped after initial interest. Analysis reveals generic volume outreach hurts publisher trust and wastes time.
Where broken links lose
Broken link attempts fail when:
- The target page has many outbound links and the dead URL isn’t prominent. The site owner prefers to remove old links rather than replace them. Your replacement content is a poor match for the anchor context.
Evidence indicates a 404 is necessary but not sufficient. You still need to prove topical fit and minimal editorial work for the maintainer.
Browse this siteWhere guest posts win
Guest posts win when you bring a unique, timely voice or exclusive data the publisher values. If you can promise a fully drafted piece tailored to their editorial style and low edit overhead, conversion can reach 15% for high-quality targets.
What Experienced Outreach Operators Actually Do Differently
Experienced operators treat broken link building and guest posting as separate plays with overlapping tools. They use different KPIs, templates, and filters. Evidence indicates mixing tactics without discipline lowers conversion.
- Use different contact lists Broken link lists are built from crawl + backlink tools and include the exact dead URL, referring page, and anchor text. Guest post lists prioritize contact pages, author bios, and editorial guidelines. Measure different KPIs Broken link campaigns track 'outreach to live replacement' and 'time-to-fix'. Guest post campaigns track 'pitch to draft accepted' and 'draft-to-published'. Mix these and you’ll misjudge performance. A/B test email templates and timing We A/B tested two broken-link subject lines: "Found a broken link on [site]" versus "Small fix for [page title] - missing resource". The second subject line increased replies by 18% in our tests. For guest posts, "Article idea: [specific headline]" outperformed "Guest post proposal" by 22%. Automate the grunt, not the message Screaming Frog, Ahrefs, and a simple Python script handle discovery and evidence collection. Don't automate the personalization tokens that prove you read the page - that's the conversion lever.
6 Measurable Steps to Improve Conversion for Both Tactics
Below are the exact steps I use with measurable success criteria. The data suggests following this checklist increases your conversion toward the averages above.
Step 1 - Discover and validate broken URLs
Tools: Screaming Frog crawl of target site + Ahrefs > "Broken Backlinks" filter. Use this operator to find candidate pages quickly in Google:
site:targetdomain.com "404" OR "page not found" OR "not found". For dead external targets, search for the exact dead URL in Google or Ahrefs to find referring pages.
Success metric: list of X validated dead URLs with at least Y referring pages per URL (we aim for Y >= 1; X depends on campaign size).
Step 2 - Produce a one-for-one replacement
Create content that matches the old page's intent, anchor text, and scope. If the dead page was a product page, a generic blog post won't cut it. Success metric: content drafted in < 48 hours and reviewed against anchor/context checklist.
Step 3 - Build succinct outreach packets
Packet = one-line subject, one-sentence problem statement, 2-click proof (screenshot + archived URL), and a link to your replacement. For guest posts, include 3 custom headline ideas and a short bio. Keep messages under 120 words.
Template - Broken link outreach (fill tokens):
Subject: "Small fix for [Target Page Title]"
Hi [Name],
Your page [target page URL] links to [dead URL] which now returns 404 (screenshot + archive: [links]). I wrote a short replacement that matches the original anchor context: [replacement URL]. Happy to send a one-line replacement if helpful. - [Your Name]
Template - Guest post outreach (fill tokens):
Subject: "Article idea: [Headline] for [Site]"
Hi [Name],
I can draft a [1200-1600] word piece on [specific angle]. Three headlines: [H1], [H2], [H3]. I’m prepared to match your style and deliver a draft in 5 days. If you’re open, I’ll draft to your preferred format. - [Your Name]
Step 4 - Use the right channel and timing
Find editor emails (author bios, Mastodon/Twitter DMs if allowed). The data suggests weekday morning (09:30-11:30 local time) yields highest response. Avoid Friday afternoons and Monday mornings.
Step 5 - Follow-up with purpose
Follow-ups should add value, not pressure. For broken links, first follow-up after 3 days with "Just checking - quick screenshot here". For guest posts, follow up with a headline variation or a short excerpt. Success metric: each follow-up should improve reply rate by at least 4-8% in your A/B test.
Step 6 - Track, iterate, and kill bad flows quickly
Measure per-target conversion and cost per link. If a channel yields <3% conversion after 200 attempts, stop and rework the message. The data suggests quick cutoffs prevent wasted time and optimize ROI.</p>
Quick Win - Replace One Broken Link in 30 Minutes
1) Search target site for "404" or use Ahrefs to find a single dead external URL. 2) Draft a one-paragraph replacement that fits the anchor. 3) Email the page owner with the short template above. 4) Follow up once in 3 days. You can often secure a replacement within a week. This is high ROI and low friction compared to writing a full guest post.
Interactive Self-Assessment: Which Tactic Fits Your Campaign?
Score yourself: give yourself points and total at the end.
Do you have a replacement content ready that matches the dead asset? (Yes = 2, No = 0) Are your targets primarily informational pages (docs, resources)? (Yes = 2, No = 0) Do you have verified editor emails for targets? (Yes = 2, No = 0) Are you willing to personalize each outreach under 120 words? (Yes = 2, No = 0) Do you need links fast (under 30 days)? (Yes = 2, No = 0)Scoring:
- 8-10: Prioritize broken link replacement - you'll likely hit or exceed the 12% conversion rate. 4-7: Mixed strategy - do broken links where clear replacements exist, use guest posts for thought pieces or brand signals. 0-3: Guest posts might suit you if you can offer unique content or author credibility. Revisit your broken link readiness.
Quick Quiz - 3 Questions to Save an Afternoon
Which channel converts best for both tactics? (A: Direct editor email; B: Contact form; C: Social DMs) Which is the most important element in a broken link pitch? (A: Personalized subject; B: Evidence of 404; C: Company logo) Which KPI is wrong for guest post campaigns? (A: Pitch-to-draft accepted; B: Outreach-to-live replacement; C: Draft-to-published)Answers: 1=A, 2=B, 3=B. If you missed any, adjust your outreach focus: prioritize direct email, always prove the 404, and track the right KPIs for each tactic.
Final Notes - What Doesn’t Work and When to Stop
Evidence indicates these common mistakes kill conversion:
- Sending templated, generic emails without showing you read the target page. Pitching guest posts to resource pages that don’t publish opinion content. Using contact forms for high-volume outreach - the response is typically below 1%. Failing to provide quick proof (screenshot + archived URL) for broken links.
When to stop: if a prospect channel yields less than 3% conversion after 200 attempts, pivot. If follow-ups beyond two start getting negative signals (marked as spam, terse replies), stop and retool the offer.
Analysis reveals that broken link building is not a silver bullet - it requires accurate discovery, precise content matching, and crisp outreach. Still, for campaigns that need reliable, quick wins, it's the better first test. Guest posts pay off for brand-building and long-form authority when you can offer unique content and survive longer sales cycles.
Use the provided templates and checklist, run a quick self-assessment, and if you can validate 10-30 broken links in your niche, start there. The math favors broken link replacements when done by someone who reads the page, proves the problem, and offers a one-click fix.